On January 8, Iran launched a missile strike against US airbases in Iraq. The attack followed escalatory behavior from both sides. Much of the early commentary that I’ve seen from from US sources seems to fear both imminent retaliation and a declaration of war from President Trump and increasingly damaging attacks from or sponsored by Iran.
If the bombing of a US base in Iraq did not result in any US casualties, I argue that the strike by Iran should be viewed as a rational de-escalatory move. The US killed Iranian Major General Soleimani; Iran’s Supreme Leader was faced with a crises of sovereignty and public relations. Doing nothing would have resulted in a major loss of face for an authoritarian regime that is currently dealing with political unrest.
Striking a base that houses US troops without causing casualties provides Iran the ability to show striking propaganda film of a burning US airbase as retaliation for General Soleimani’s death without provoking the US in to further action. The Supreme Leader will tell his citizens that President Trump will be able to use this event to distance himself from past Republicans by not furthering action in the Middle East after an attack; he should focus on the lack of casualties as a reason to prove his commitment to reduce US troops in the Middle East.
Politically the strike on a US airbase serves both Iran and the US, as long as their leaders perform as rational actors. I expect to see cooler minds prevail and for no further warlike action between either leader.
Polly Wanna Math 