When will we drive flying cars?

Since before the Jetsons, we have dreamed of owning a flying car. The idea of leaving your house in the sky and flying to your destination without the humdrum of ground traffic is exciting. We already have helicopters, private drones, and airplanes, why not flying cars too?

In fact, there is a flying car on sale today (well….preorder). It isn’t quite the Jetsons, but it confirms the base technology is possible and not too far away. So when will the average person drive a flying car and will it bring the freedom we hope?

I’m not sure flying cars will ever be in our future. And if flying cars see widespread adoption, I don’t think it will offer a superior product to ground transit. I have a few reasons for my thinking:

1. There aren’t many helicopter pilots. An ultralight helicopter can cost as little as $20,000 and the range would suffice for daily commutes. Ultralight helicopters are as close as we have to the cars of the Jetsons and are possible for wealthy individuals today. The regulatory limitations of helicopters are much lower than that of airplanes. Getting a private helicopter license is expensive, but can happen in a year. There are a number of reasons more people don’t take helicopters to work including safety concerns, noise, licensure, and a lack of flexibility, and it isn’t clear that a driving car will fix them.
2. Regulatory requirements. It’s clear that even if flying cars exist, and are capable of autonomous/semiautonomous flight, there will be regulatory barriers of entry. People that own them will need to be licensed. Traffic will be regulated. The end product between self-driving  ground cars and self-driving flying cars will not be sufficiently different to justify the cost of licensure for widespread adoption of the flying product. If neither are self-driving, flying will be too hard for the general population.
3. NIMBY-ism. Why will skys be congested? Because people will not want flying vehicles over their property. Property lines will extend 5,000-10,000 ft above the ground and cities will not allow flying except for specified flyways. Flying will lose its luster quickly when it has the same traffic, speed, noise, and route limitations of the ground.