Coronavirus could cost Trump the election, Goldman Sachs warns. Goldman’s argument is that widespread Coronavirus will depress U.S growth and voters will look for the Democratic party to improve economic outlook in a recession:
“If the coronavirus epidemic materially affects US economic growth it may increase the likelihood of Democratic victory in the 2020 election,” Goldman Sachs analysts led by Ben Snider wrote in a report published Wednesday night.
Shockingly Goldman is looking at Coronavirus as an economic shock, rather than a social one, and is coming to the wrong conclusion. Broadly, I see two scenarios where Coronavirus actually helps Trump win re-election in November:
- COVID-19 ran its course, no longer poses a health concern, and the markets are recovering.
- COVID-19 caused school closures, healthcare shortages, panic and death in the elderly population, and the country has not yet recovered from the social and humanitarian tolls of the virus.
In the first scenario, Trump will point to his leadership as the singular reason that the United States recovered and will craft a narrative that the democrats would have lengthened a recession and ruined the healthcare system. He will contrast the health outcomes of United States with China, or Iran, and claim that the “socialist” Democrats would have turned the country into the modern-day Soviet Union. I predict that his messaging will be effective enough to cement support from the elderly, and will pick up moderate independents who are wary of the Democrats leftward trajectory.
The second scenario will play out politically like a war or a natural disaster. In this scenario, Trump’s right-wing ideas will spike in popularity and Americans will look for consistency in political office. It is worth noting that no sitting president has lost re-election during wartime. Trump will point to his warnings and actions against China, and his proposed travel bans, to claim that he was prescient on the risks of outside actors. Trump will play on the fears of at-risk or unwell Americans, and cast the Democrats as un-American.
Does that mean that there are no scenarios that help the Democrats? I think there is a third, relatively likely scenario:
- COVID-19 spreads through the US and lingers without causing hysteria. Trump’s administration mismanages the outbreak and independents reasonably believe that a Democratic administration would have been better suited to handle the outbreak.
In the third scenario, it does not matter if the virus was actually mismanaged or if the Democrats could have done a better job. What matters is that independents and moderate Republicans believe that Trump mishandled the situation (his Twitter makes that somewhat likely.
Polly Wanna Math 