Disclaimer:
I have neither the experience nor vocabulary to write about the experience of people that led to the protests we see in Minnesota and throughout the US. Too many are writing too well on the topic for me to add value or context concerning the needs and desired outcomes for the current protests.
Instead, I want to offer a three-part review that focuses on the political and societal conditions that encourage, maintain, and resolve civil unrest, in the hope that it helps others, who may also lack the experience to understand the current situations.
In April 2019, the ruling party of China passed an extradition bill that would allow China to extradite Hong Kongese criminal suspects to mainland China. Protest erupted and, as of May 31 2020, have not ceased. Instead, the protestors and mainland China continue to fortify their positions (after the original bill was rescinded); The protestors issued five demands without room for compromise, and China continues to respond with laws that limit the freedom of the Hong Kongese.
Hong Kong’s governance is unique. Although it is part of China, it has a (mostly) separate rule of law under the “one country, two systems” model. That model is set to expire in 2047, and no one knows what will come after. The five demands do not include an extension of the current governing model.
The people of Hong Kong are substantially better off than their Chinese counterparts living elsewhere(based on financial, heath and civil liberties outcomes). Shouldn’t they celebrate their position of relative health, wealth and happiness? They know it will probably end in 2047, right? Better to make the most of the time they have, and how does Taiwan fit into the picture?
The protests are especially resilient because the end or their special administration will end. The outcomes for each subsequent generation are looking worse and inequality is rising. Income inequality in Hong Kong is the highest in any developed city. Millions of poor youths are facing a future without hope. China’s intervention in politics and government represents a tangible representation of their fears. WIth no hope and therefore no repercussions, protests will and should run rampant.
Why should this concern Taiwan? The Taiwanese haven’t seen the level of civil unrest we see in Hong Kong and the government of Taiwan considers itself separate from China. When the people of Hong Kong started to protest, many western outlets shared their sympathies. Many rescinded those sympathies almost immediately.
This list (worth opening) has a list of companies that apologized to China as of October 25,2019 for myriad reasons. Two reasons are most common: supporting the HK protests, and recognizing Taiwan’s independence. The Chinese market is more appealing to most corporations, than the government’s actions are abhorrent. Most foreign governments do not recognize Taiwan (nor Hong Kong) as separate from China; however, they will deal with Taiwan and Hong Kong separately for trade or travel restrictions.
On May 27, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo officially recognized China’s authority over Hong Kong and refused to recognize any special administration. This move, intended or not, removed the legitimacy of the HK protests within the US.
Taiwan should watch closely. The current US administration has positioned itself as “America First” and appears to be unwilling to involve itself in regional foreign affairs. If China is able to assert more control over Hong Kong, Taiwan will be next. It should not expect US aid. The protests will not have brought any improvement, but that does not mean they were incorrect. If China backs off Hong Kong, Taiwan now has the playbook.
Polly Wanna Math 