Historically, the US government has had an arsenal to combat recessions. Not every weapon has worked every time, but the government has tried sending stimulus checks, lowering interest (discount and federal funds) rates, quantitative easing, and cutting taxes to varying success in past recessions. Economists bitterly argue about which monetary, fiscal, and governmental policies In June, the United States officially entered (and exited) a recession. While that recession did not last long, another may.
Interest rates are at historic lows. The Federal Reserve is buying a lot of corporate bonds. The national debt is skyrocketing. Stimulus checks are already utilized. The government is providing low-interest loans to small business. Economists debate whether the government could continue or increase these actions, but for the sake of argument I’ll posit that the government will not able to continue these activities. The government used its weapons and the arsenal is running low.
Occasionally I plan to write about the non-traditional approaches the government can take to combat future recessions and determine if these approaches will remain viable. For consideration today is military recruitment to boost employment and aid urban areas in recession.
Military recruitment generally spikes during recessions. Enlisting offers an individual an opportunity for stable income. Moving young men away from unemployment in cities to controlled military bases helps reduce unemployment and helps the government minimize the negative societal impacts of recession. Historically, a 1 percent change in civilian unemployment yields a 0.6 percent increase in Army recruiting; however, that may not be the case in the future.
Increasing military recruitment during the next recession will be tougher than it was in 2008 for a few reasons:
- Americans have a less favorable view of joining the military than they did in 2008. This will make recruitment a harder task.
- The US does not have a demonstrable need for an increase in the number of ground troops.
- The pool of eligible recruits is too small
- The average tenure of military is increasing, preventing a need for new recruits
Without changes to public perception and the makeup of the military, military recruitment will be a less effective tool to fight recessions than it was in 2008.
Polly Wanna Math 