Vox recently released an article that describes the culture and money surrounding the whiskey collection industry. I predict that 50 years from now the most expensive whiskeys will be original unopened bottles of rarified whiskeys from past eras (no change), but the second tier of whiskeys will be unopened bottles of whiskeys from deeply flawed vintages of respected houses (change).
Supply and demand laws traditional work well to raise the cost of aged spirits. The supply of 20 year aged Pappy is not going to increase any time soon (it takes 20 years…). Increases to the supply of aged spirits tend to outrage consumers. Remember the Maker’s Mark debacle? Almost every year, one of the major whiskey houses are shocked by a natural disaster, such as a breakage or flood. Given the supply constraints, even whiskeys released in a year are sometimes rare.
What will happen to the industry when all of the supply constraints are removed? “Lab grown” whiskeys present the promise of an alternative world where whiskey created last night can mirror the flavor profile of a 1923 Macallan for less than a bottle of your father’s Cutty Sark. Although I expect the lab grown whiskey industry to face strong resistance in its nascent years, the promise of a perfect spirit without perfect spirit cost is too appealing to remain niche. The first lab grown whiskey is already commercially available for $40, although reviews are divided.
Why will flawed spirits garner high values? Because in this alternative world of perfect spirits, the only flavors that will be hard to obtain are flawed whiskeys made in the traditional ways. Connoisseurs will seek hard-to-find flavor profiles. A 1946 that smells of formaldehyde and tastes of stinky cheese will never be recreated for mass-production. Have a toast to our brave new world!
Polly Wanna Math 