Polly Wanna Math

Disclaimer:

I have neither the experience nor vocabulary to write about the experience of people that led to the protests we see in Minnesota and throughout the US. Too many are writing too well on the topic for me to add value or context concerning the needs and desired outcomes for the current protests.

Instead, I want to offer a three-part review that focuses on the political and societal conditions that encourage, maintain, and resolve civil unrest, in the hope that it helps others, who may also lack the experience to understand the current situations.

In April 2019, the ruling party of China passed an extradition bill that would allow China to extradite Hong Kongese criminal suspects to mainland China. Protest erupted and, as of May 31 2020, have not ceased. Instead, the protestors and mainland China continue to fortify their positions (after the original bill was rescinded); The protestors issued five demands without room for compromise, and China continues to respond with laws that limit the freedom of the Hong Kongese.

Hong Kong’s governance is unique. Although it is part of China, it has a (mostly) separate rule of law under the “one country, two systems” model. That model is set to expire in 2047, and no one knows what will come after. The five demands do not include an extension of the current governing model.

The people of Hong Kong are substantially better off than their Chinese counterparts living elsewhere(based on financial, heath and civil liberties outcomes). Shouldn’t they celebrate their position of relative health, wealth and happiness? They know it will probably end in 2047, right? Better to make the most of the time they have, and how does Taiwan fit into the picture?

The protests are especially resilient because the end or their special administration will end. The outcomes for each subsequent generation are looking worse and inequality is rising. Income inequality in Hong Kong is the highest in any developed city. Millions of poor youths are facing a future without hope. China’s intervention in politics and government represents a tangible representation of their fears. WIth no hope and therefore no repercussions, protests will and should run rampant.

Why should this concern Taiwan? The Taiwanese haven’t seen the level of civil unrest we see in Hong Kong and the government of Taiwan considers itself separate from China. When the people of Hong Kong started to protest, many western outlets shared their sympathies. Many rescinded those sympathies almost immediately.

This list (worth opening) has a list of companies that apologized to China as of October 25,2019 for myriad reasons. Two reasons are most common: supporting the HK protests, and recognizing Taiwan’s independence. The Chinese market is more appealing to most corporations, than the government’s actions are abhorrent. Most foreign governments do not recognize Taiwan (nor Hong Kong) as separate from China; however, they will deal with Taiwan and Hong Kong separately for trade or travel restrictions.

On May 27, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo officially recognized China’s authority over Hong Kong and refused to recognize any special administration. This move, intended or not, removed the legitimacy of the HK protests within the US.

Taiwan should watch closely. The current US administration has positioned itself as “America First” and appears to be unwilling to involve itself in regional foreign affairs. If China is able to assert more control over Hong Kong, Taiwan will be next. It should not expect US aid. The protests will not have brought any improvement, but that does not mean they were incorrect. If China backs off Hong Kong, Taiwan now has the playbook.

Continued in posts 2 and 3.

Observations

The Crusades: A Historical Barometer

May 26, 2020July 15, 2020 pollywannamath

You are in a discussion with four or five strangers that seem to have at least a passing interest in history. Without openly discussing the twins of politics and religion, you want to learn more about your new companions and how they think. You decide to start a discussion about a historical topic and hope that it will prove more interesting than the current conversation about the weather. Hopefully, you will learn something interesting about each participant. What historical topic, if discussed, would be the most illuminating of a person’s political and historical biases?

The topic you choose needs to be well-known enough that the average person can discuss it. Ideally, it is recent enough to have primary sources with recorded opposing views and that any current disagreements reflect broader socio-political-religious differences.

After giving this a little thought, I’d shift discussion from the weather to the Crusades. Depending on a person’s understanding and biases, the Crusades range from a noble Christian salvation of a holy land, an unsuccessful wealth grab with a weak religious pretense, or a destabilizing intrusion of western forces and Christendom into a budding Muslim Seljuk Empire.

The Crusades have everything.

The disputes surrounding the Crusades mirror the disputes in political and religious thought today. What role should the West have in the development of the Middle East? What place should religious institutions have in government? How important is a Holy Land; is it worth protecting? Is Western Christianity a net positive? Is Western history “good”? Is it possible to separate religion and politics?

Even the name “Crusade” is charged and should evoke a response. I bet that even those with limited knowledge of the Crusades will show their priors because they will lean on their beliefs concerning Christianity or Islam or share the version of the Crusades they were taught in school.

Please let me know if you have a better recommendation.

Education, Observations

Sad Thoughts From A Happy Acheivement

May 23, 2020July 15, 2020 pollywannamath

In May 2020, Princeton will graduate its first black valedictorian in its history. The student, Nicholas Johnson, is celebrated and deserves all of the praise that comes his way. The College; however, does not. Nor does the American educational system. Nicholas Johnson does not represent a shift in the American educational system, nor does he represent tremendous progress for Princeton.

Before I write a take-down of an event that should be lauded, I have to acknowledge that I am white and could not possibly be attuned to the power of messages like the one Nicholas Johnson represents. I have been fortunate to see almost exclusively white men pave the roads that I may follow in business, education, theology, and science. I cannot imagine being young, looking for inspiration, and only seeing people that do not reflect my skin tone or background. The intention of this piece is not to put a damper on Nicholas Johnson’s incredible achievement. It is not to hold Princeton accountable for its historical tradition of racism either.

I hope to contextualize Nicholas Johnson’s accomplishment in the broader context of minority education in America. Nicholas Johnson does not represent a turning point in American higher education, because he is not American. Nicholas Johnson is a Canadian.

Johnson did not grow up as a minority in the American educational system. He did not attend American high school. He did not have to confront the non-academic challenges that contribute to the racial achievement gap in American schools. That is not to say that Canada ‘solved racism’, or that schools in Canada are more egalitarian, but it should prevent US institutions from pointing to a Canadian achievement as progress. Johnson’s parents are both doctors, he went to an excellent high school, he unfortunately does not represent the situation of most American minority university students.

The second reason that the US should not point to his achievement as a global one, is that he will likely bring his talent to Canada once he earns his doctorate. He is a Canadian citizen, his parents live in Canada, and his senior thesis was focused on preventative health measures in Canada. I think its fair to assume that he has some home country pride:

My senior thesis was studying a preventative health intervention designed to curb the prevalence of obesity in Canada and modeling that particular type of health intervention as an optimization problem and then developing algorithms to solve that optimization problem on large scales. So, concretely, that would mean being able to take a preventative health intervention and scale it up such that it would be applicable for communities with thousands or tens of thousands of individuals. That was the most significant research project that I’ve worked on this year. I submitted that a few weeks ago and I’m very, very happy with what I was able to accomplish.
The Daily Princetonian

I hope children of all races look up to Nicholas Johnson, but valedictorian is a personal achievement. He deserved the accolade on his own merits. The US high school system did not prepare him, and he did not get into a selective university because of a diversity policy (he was valedictorian of his prestigious high school). Instead of being an incredible story of personal achievement, his story may serve as distraction from the bleak truth of educational disparity in the US.

Observations, Technology

Should we care more about UFOs?

May 13, 2020May 26, 2020 pollywannamath

During the COVID-19 pandemic, the US government released confirmation that three military videos containing unidentified objects are real and that the unidentified objects are unidentified. Does that mean that these unidentified objects are extraterrestrial? Alien UFO theories have been popular since the 30’s and provide a possible explanation for Fermi’s paradox. Since the UFO sightings in Roswell, the mainstream dismissed those who believe in alien exploration of earth and that the UFOs are alien vehicles as kooks. Many are.

During this crisis, the UFO news passed with little fanfare. In the past, UFO sightings were explained as weather balloons, government experiments, or camera errors. In this case, the US government admits that it is not aware of the objects’ identity? With better cameras than were possible in the earliest conspiracies, what is the explanation now?

Extraterrestrial activity
Civilian/NGO Prank
Other country’s military activity
US government attempt to downplay covid by creating a compelling news story
Other

None of the explanations above are comforting. Yet, UFOs have less interest than murder hornets in a google trends report. Even if there is a 1% chance it is alien activity and a 1% chance that it is military action, we certainly aren’t concerned enough about UFO activity. The possible implications of military action the US can’t explain, or alien visitors are significantly larger than even the COVID-19 pandemic.

Business, Observations

COVID-19 Policy Weighing Mechanism

May 10, 2020January 3, 2021 pollywannamath

Too many policy discussions surrounding COVID-19 create a false dichotomy between those who prioritize the economy against those who prioritize reducing mortality. Data cateloging the spread of the virus, the severity and mortality rates, and time to vaccine are inconstant and contested from all sides of the policy debate. As a result, months into the pandemic, we (the public) don’t have a universally accepted model that predicts the end of the outbreak.

This uncertainty forces governing bodies to make a choice for when, what elements, and how to resume a functioning society. In the US the choice for how and when to reopen are left to the cities and states to determine. In some ways this make sense. Because the desease spreads unevenly and different regions will experience different severities of outbreak, multiple solutions might perform better than a one-size fits all approach. On the other hand, devoid of national guidelines, chaos reigns supreme.

Pundits, armchair politicians, and anyone with a computer have been quick to criticize places for opening too quickly or being too hesitant, but rarely offer a competing weighing mechanism or policy timeline.

I propose that we use the aggregate life-year change as the weighing mechanism to determine if a governing body should pursue a specific COVID-19 policy. The life year is a natural bridge between the economic and mortality focused sides of the debate. The idea behind the life year is to look at the loss of years from expected life that are tied to each COVID-19 death on one side and the number of anticipated year increases from a policy change on the other. There have been a number of studies on life year changes from educational attainment, child abuse, and income. Arguments for ending rest-in-place policies often cite educational losses, increase in child abuse, and decreases in incomes as reasons to reopen society.

Using the life-year scale will face two significant challenges. Many will be uncomfortable with discussions of death in years rather than lives and consider the scale dehumanizing. The second relates to quality of data, because mortality rates are still in question, critics will reject this scheme. To that end, I recommend using a very conservative mortality rate. Use a number that is almost certainly higher than truth across all age groups (e.g. 2% aggregate).

My recommendation is not a novel one. In a recent Marginal Revolution post, Tyler Cowen introduced a study that used life-year analysis (although he did not explicitly recommend its use). A group of researchers from South Africa explored the question of COVID-19 lockdown policies and expect that over 26,000 years will be lost to South Africa’s lockdown policies.

This analysis could help state and local leads make informed, data-driven, policy choices and provide structure for the national debate on COVID-19 policy.