Tag: GOP Blunder

Legal, Politics, Prediction

No, The Republicans Aren’t Stupid…Probably

pollywannamath

The Republican Party has been plagued with misstep after misstep. From a press conference at a landscaping firm, a top lawyer having his license suspended, to multiple impeachments and a lie about election results, the Republican party leads have appeared to have blundered its way through the last couple of years.

The press has not overlooked the frequency of these blunders; nor has it let the GOP off the hook for them. It’s easy to find articles with headlines that emphasize the Republican Party’s “disasters,” rather than report events. I’ve added one such headline below:

POLITICO Playbook: Graham: Biden made GOP look like ‘f—ing idiots’

Politico Blog 6/25/2021

Is it the case that the Republican Party elites are f—ing idiots? Or is there a reason for the series of blunders and scandals, even when the Democrats control the White House? I’d like to offer an alternative reason for many of the more obviously comical blunders of the GOP–rational and mercenary political strategy.

In 2018, GOP party outlook was bleak. Only 44% of registered voters approved of Trump, international approval was almost nonexistent, and lost ground in Congress, Gubernatorial elections and state legislatures. Republican elites tried and proved they could not control Trump’s Twitter or press conference antics. In that desolate time, a few positive trends appeared:

You’re a highly-paid political consultant to the GOP after the 2018 midterms. It’s clear that the Party cannot control Trump and dissent in the ranks will only benefit the Democrats. What plan will you provide to Party leads to strengthen the short-term outlook of the party?

Let me provide a hypothetical plan that I might have suggested, and may not be far from the truth:

  1. Limit access to voting for populations who are likely to vote “blue”
  2. Avoid introducing policy positions where possible
  3. Keep news coverage from the left dismissive and intense. Increase the amount and intensity of fearmongering from conservative news sources.
  4. Build a party by opposition.
  5. Govern from the Court.

Within this framework, the bulk of Republican party missteps start to look intentional and strategic. Before looking at some of those missteps, I’ll build a short case that each of the bullets above are part of the current Republican Party strategy.

  1. Limit access to voting for populations who are likely to vote “blue”

On July 1, 2021, Justice Sam Alito released the 6-3 majority opinion for Brnovich v. Democratic National Committee. The case evaluated whether changes to early voting laws and out of precinct ballot counting violated Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act. The facts of the case indicated that no history of fraud was associated with out-of-precinct ballots and that these changes invalidated minority ballots at twice the rate they invalidated majority voters. The majority opinion found that the state was within its rights to enact these restrictive laws because the impact to minorities was small in absolute terms and none of the restrictions imposes a burden greater than the usual burden of voting on voters. The ruling is significant because it enables states to continue to impose barriers to voting that will likely benefit Republicans.

The aim of these laws was made clear by the state’s lawyer, Michael Carvin, during oral argument:

Because it puts us at a competitive disadvantage relative to Democrats. Politics is a zero sum game. And every extra vote they get through unlawful interpretations of Section 2 hurts us. It’s the difference between winning an election 50-49 and losing an election.

Carvin describing the need for these laws

2. Avoid introducing policy positions where possible

During the 2020 Republican National Convention, the Republican Party declined to produce a party platform. The 2016 Platform was 66 pages and included party stances on cybersecurity, human trafficking, crony capitalism, healthcare, Human Rights, and Government Reform. A party platform directs the party for the next four years and informs voters of what it means to be a member of the party. Not having a platform is an aberration for a political organization.

Rather than a platform, the Republican Convention of 2020 released a statement that includes:

…The media has outrageously misrepresented the implications of the RNC not
adopting a new platform in 2020 and continues to engage in misleading advocacy for the failed policies of the Obama-Biden Administration, rather than providing the public with unbiased reporting of facts; and WHEREAS, The RNC enthusiastically supports President Trump and continues to reject the policy positions of the Obama-Biden Administration, as well as those espoused by the Democratic National Committee today; therefore, be it RESOLVED, That the Republican Party has and will continue to enthusiastically support the President’s America-first agenda.

3. Keep news coverage from the left dismissive and intense. Increase the amount and intensity of fearmongering from conservative news sources.

The headlines linked in the first paragraph are evidence that, even mainstream, news organizations are editorializing headlines. In 2016, Jim Rutenburg wrote a piece for the New York Times (gated) where he wrote, “You have to throw out the textbook [of] American journalism…. You would move closer than you’ve ever been to being oppositional. That’s uncomfortable and uncharted territory for every mainstream, non-opinion journalist… by normal standards, untenable.” Oppositional media strengthens the doubt sowed by Republican elites in the last few years. The opposition of main stream news has been a major help in isolating and insolating Republicans from thoughts or perspectives that might harm party alignment.

Similarly conservative media has focused on demonizing the liberal media and Democrats in general. Tucker, the highest rated cable news show, wins viewers with a mix of vitriolic, bombastic, and fearmongering rhetoric. It might not be fair to point to a single news outlet as the totality of conservative news, but if I were to point to a single source Tucker is by far the most emblematic. During the Trump presidency, Trump keyed into Tucker to determine where his followers were leaning and Tucker was the highest rated cable news show in history. Hard to pick a better representation of conservative media in the Trump era.

4. Build a party by opposition

I’ve established that the GOP did not produce a platform with any policy stances during the 2020 convention. In lieu of the platform, GOP produced a survey in 2021 to pull members about party stances. I invite you to review the questions here. The Republicans have built a coalition by opposition, the only policy outlined in the 2020 platform was the rejection of policies led by the Democratic Party (see above). The areas where the party is aligned on policy are covered in the other bullets: attacking media/social media, tightening voting policy, and preventing changes to the Supreme Court.

5. Govern from the Court

Despite the coverage that the Court was largely bipartisan or centrist in 2020-2021, the Court managed to make significant conservative inroads. When the Shadow Docket is taken into account, the Court’s actions leaned strongly toward forwarding the conservative agenda (33 cases decided along political lines). During the 2020-2021 term, the Court held that Philadelphia wronged Catholic Social Services by denying it a contract based on the agency’s refusal to comply with the city’s nondiscrimination policy (refusing to allow gay couples to adopt kids), struck down or stayed COVID restrictions, sanctioned limits on voting access (see above), strengthened employer rights over unions, invalidated financial disclosure requirements for individual donors to political organizations.

The Supreme Court currently holds a 6-3 majority after the Senate blocked the nomination of Merrick Garland in 2016 and the death of Ruth Bader Ginsburg in 2020. At the federal level, Republicans have a 52% majority on judge appointments. These majorities make it possible for the court system to bound the possibilities of a Democratic-controlled legislature and aid the five list items above and advance the traditional policies of the Republican party.

In October, the Court will hear a challenge to Roe and a few police-powers cases. I will watch closely to see how aligned the rulings in these cases are to traditional conservative policy stances.

How do the “Blunders” fit in?

Let’s review a few of the higher profile blunders of the Republican leadership over the last few months:

I will not dive into the strategy of lying to millions about the outcome of an election. It clearly aligns with policy points 1, 3, and 4, and has by covered by myriad sources.

It is possible that Giuliani, a lawyer who used to be called America’s mayor for his 9/11 response, and Trump a mogul who has avoided numerous scandals in his life forgot how to build a competent team or prevent self-incriminating. However, I struggle to believe that is the case. I think it is likely that the party recognized a post-Trump era as a threat to the manufactured fear and hate of anyone on the left-side of the political aisle.

Since Biden took office, media ratings on all sides have fallen significantly. The Republican strategy requires abstracting their voters from specific policy discussions. A continued drip of scandal, blunder, and missteps will cause the liberal media to continue to editorialize headlines and push conservative listeners/readers to conservative sources. In the short term, these scandals have not damaged Republican odds. The Republican party outperformed in 2020 in relation to president Trump’s favorability ratings.

I’ve attempted to produce a set of strategies that both explain the direction of the GOP since 2018 along with some of its recent blunders. If I am near the mark, I anticipate seeing a continued drip of blunders within the Trump camp and Trump-associated Congress people and continued efforts to limit voting access and govern from the bench.